by Capital Economics
Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.
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April 17, 2025
<p>Neil Shearing has been in back-to-back meetings with global institutions who – like everyone – are trying to make sense of Trump’s chaotic trade policy roll-out, not least the recent decision to pause "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics joins the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to address some of the questions that have kept coming up in those sit-downs with clients, including:</p><ul><li>What the global trading picture might look like when the 90-day tariffs “pause” ends</li><li>Why we think US growth risks have risen but we still don’t expect a recession </li><li>How the Federal Reserve will play slower growth with higher inflation</li><li>What curbs on Nvidia chips tells us about decision-making amid Trumpian uncertainty </li><li>If there’s a US-China trade deal to be done</li></ul><p><strong>Analysis referenced in this episode:</strong></p><p>Read: Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere?<br>https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-tariffs-drive-flood-chinese-exports-elsewhere<strong></strong></p><p>Read: Is China offloading its dollar assets?<br>https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-focus/china-offloading-its-dollar-assets<strong></strong></p><p>Data: Tariff Impact Model (TIM)<br>https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-model<strong></strong></p><p>Read: US Outlook - Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threat<br>https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economic-outlook/scaled-back-tariffs-not-existential-threat</p><p><strong>Read: ECB Policy Announcement (April 2025)<br></strong>https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/ecb-policy-announcement-april-2025</p>
April 11, 2025
<p>As the dust settles after another of week of dramatic policy shifts, the picture that has emerged is a familiar one from Trump's first term: China is the main target after all. China isn't taking Trump's tariffs lying down. Instead, it has hit back tariff for tariff so that both sides are now applying tariffs to each others' goods of well above 100%. </p><p><br></p><p>In this week's episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing asks Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, why China is adopting a more combative approach to Donald Trump than other countries and what that suggests about the future of the relationship. Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown offers some scenarios for what might happen next with tariffs and their impact on growth across the global economy. And the team cast their eyes further ahead to discuss whether the tumult of the last couple of weeks may end up accelerating the fracturing of the global economy into US and China-aligned blocs or instead drive more former US allies closer to China. </p><p><br></p><p><strong>Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:<br></strong><br></p><p><strong>Read</strong>: Mapping out trade war scenarios</p><p><a href="https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/mapping-out-trade-war-scenarios">Mapping out trade war scenarios | Capital Economics</a></p><p><br></p><p><strong>Read</strong>: China and US still in an escalatory loop</p><p><a href="https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-weekly/china-and-us-still-escalatory-loop">China and US still in an escalatory loop | Capital Economics</a></p><p><br></p><p><strong>Meet</strong>: TIM - the Capital Economics Tariff Impact Model </p><p><a href="https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-model">Tariff Impact Model | Capital Economics</a></p><p><br></p><p><strong>Watch</strong>: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effects</p><p><a href="https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-escalating-trade-war-and-its-economic-and-market-effects">Drop-In: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effects | Capital Economics<br></a><br></p>
April 4, 2025
<p>At the end of one of Lenin’s “weeks when decades happen”, senior economists from Capital Economics briefed clients on the implications of the news that China is retaliating aggressively to Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan, including whether Europe could follow suit and how much more pain is in store for markets. </p><p>In this edited extract from that briefing, Neil Shearing, Mark Williams, Andrew Kenningham and Jonas Goltermann tackle everything from what China has just done to why the dollar has been acting strangely to what could push Brussels to fight back hard against the White House's reciprocal tariffs.</p><p><strong>Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:</strong></p><p>Watch: Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – China retaliates and the market’s response<br>https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-china-retaliates-and-markets-response</p><p><strong>Read: China hits back, hard<br></strong>https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/china-hits-back-hard</p><p><strong>Read: Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs</strong><br>https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/answering-your-questions-about-liberation-day-tariffs</p><p><br></p>
Financial Times & Pushkin Industries
Bloomberg
Financial Times
Financial Times
J.P. Morgan Global Research
Financial Times
Oaktree Capital Management
Financial Times
Stephen Clapham, Behind the Balance Sheet
Bloomberg
J.P. Morgan Global Research
Money Maze Podcast
Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Goldman Sachs
Bloomberg
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