by Patrick McKenzie
We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.
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🇺🇲
Publishing Since
7/11/2024
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April 17, 2025
<p>In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Tim Fist, Director of Emerging Technologies at the Institute for Progress, to discuss how energy constraints could bottleneck AI development. They explore how AI training clusters will soon require gigawatts of power—equivalent to multiple nuclear plants—with projections showing a single cluster needing 5 gigawatts by 2030. Tim explains why behind-the-meter generation and geothermal energy offer promising solutions while regulatory hurdles like NEPA and transmission permitting create "litigation doom loops" that threaten America's competitiveness. The conversation covers the global race for compute infrastructure, with China and the UAE making aggressive investments while the US struggles with permitting delays, highlighting how energy policy will determine which nations lead the AI revolution.</p><p> –</p><p>Full transcript available here: <a href="https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-ai-energy-bottleneck-with-tim-fist/">www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-ai-energy-bottleneck-with-tim-fist/</a><br>–<br>Sponsor: Vanta</p><p><a href="https://vanta.com/complex">Vanta</a> automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at <a href="https://vanta.com/complex">https://vanta.com/complex</a></p><p>–</p><p>Recommended in this episode:</p><ul><li>Compute in America <a href="https://ifp.org/compute-in-america/">https://ifp.org/compute-in-america/</a></li><li>Tim Fist on Twitter<a href="https://x.com/fiiiiiist"> https://x.com/fiiiiiist</a> </li><li>The Enchippening by Sarah Constantin<a href="https://sarahconstantin.substack.com/p/the-enchippening"> https://sarahconstantin.substack.com/p/the-enchippening</a> </li><li>Solar economics with Casey Handmer<a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GHegWgLSubYxvATmbWhQu?si=VKJYaSwaRJq_YcK8kJIdvQ"> https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GHegWgLSubYxvATmbWhQu?si=VKJYaSwaRJq_YcK8kJIdvQ</a> </li><li>AI & Power economics with Azeem Azhar<a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/3KkvPiYpGvXCRukWxHP7Ch?si=RPEjrs67S9CFA0lLak6OVA"> https://open.spotify.com/episode/3KkvPiYpGvXCRukWxHP7Ch?si=RPEjrs67S9CFA0lLak6OVA</a></li><li>Fracking with Austin Vernon <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=hSniC3N0QkqhF74ra-XAcA"> https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=hSniC3N0QkqhF74ra-XAcA</a> </li><li>Economics of the grid with Travis Dauwalter<a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/5JY8e84sEXmHFlc8IR2kRb?si=BsqMZGu6Qr-2F7-RSyyEhw"> https://open.spotify.com/episode/5JY8e84sEXmHFlc8IR2kRb?si=BsqMZGu6Qr-2F7-RSyyEhw</a></li></ul><p>–<br>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) Intro</p><p>(00:40) Energy bottlenecks in AI development</p><p>(02:56) Technical and policy solutions for energy needs</p><p>(05:18) Challenges in transmission infrastructure</p><p>(12:14) Behind the meter generation explained</p><p>(17:50) Solar and storage: The future of energy</p><p>(18:47) Sponsor: Vanta</p><p>(20:05) Solar and storage: The future of energy (part 2)</p><p>(29:07) Power purchase agreements and financing</p><p>(33:17) Financing geothermal wells</p><p>(33:53) The promise of geothermal energy</p><p>(35:25) Challenges in geothermal adoption</p><p>(36:59) Industrial applications of geothermal heat</p><p>(45:01) Geothermal energy and national security</p><p>(49:27) Global investments in AI and energy infrastructure</p><p>(56:29) Policy and technical expertise in AI</p><p>(01:00:54) The role of government in technological advancements</p><p>(01:05:07) Wrap</p><p><br></p>
April 10, 2025
<p>In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at Dragonfly, a crypto-focused VC fund. They discuss the evolution of stablecoins, three key use cases, and their impact on international finance. Haseeb explains how stablecoins have grown beyond their initial association with crypto trading and illicit activities to serve legitimate economic functions globally, in ways that many Americans might not fully appreciate. Patrick and Haseeb debate the regulatory landscape, the strategic ambiguity of crypto's positioning, and whether stablecoins represent a parallel financial system that might eventually converge with traditional banking.</p><p> –</p><p>Full transcript available here: <a href="https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/taking-stablecoins-seriously-with-haseeb-qureshi/">www.complexsystemspodcast.com/taking-stablecoins-seriously-with-haseeb-qureshi/</a></p><p>–<br>Sponsor: <a href="https://safebase.io/podcast">Safebase</a></p><p><br></p><p>Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to <a href="https://safebase.io/podcast">safebase.io/podcast</a> </p><p>–</p><p>Recommended in this episode:</p><ul><li>Zeke Faux on Complex Systems <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/5OnSK3PuhfipMHv9htvuyb">https://open.spotify.com/episode/5OnSK3PuhfipMHv9htvuyb</a> </li><li>Chopping Block podcast <a href="https://unchainedcrypto.com/the-chopping-block/">https://unchainedcrypto.com/the-chopping-block/</a> </li><li>Haseeb Qureshi’s website <a href="https://haseebq.com/about/">https://haseebq.com/about/</a> </li></ul><p>–</p><p>Timestamps:<br>(00:00) Intro</p><p>(00:55) Crypto industry insights and tether discussion</p><p>(02:52) Stablecoins and their economic models</p><p>(05:04) Decentralized stablecoins and their mechanisms</p><p>(07:41) VC perspective on stablecoin investments</p><p>(13:18) Regulatory challenges and lobbying in crypto</p><p>(20:36) Emerging use cases for stablecoins</p><p>(24:16) Sponsor: Safebase</p><p>(32:35) The initial response to stablecoins</p><p>(33:38) Stablecoins and national security concerns</p><p>(34:00) The shift in congressional attitude</p><p>(34:49) Stablecoins and dollar internationalization</p><p>(37:40) Retail payments in high-inflation countries</p><p>(38:41) The role of black markets</p><p>(46:13) International B2B payments</p><p>(01:02:57) The future of stablecoins</p><p>(01:05:44) Wrap</p>
April 3, 2025
<p>Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Emily Sands, Head of Information at Stripe, to discuss how they leverage AI to process over $1.4 trillion annually, while navigating the complex web of merchants, banks, and payment rails that facilitate online commerce. Patrick and Emily cover how Stripe’s layered stack of AI combats sophisticated card testing attacks, recovers billions in once-lost revenue through intelligent retry strategies, and enables new businesses to compete with established players through powerful network effects. They also talk about the meteoric rise of AI companies, and how agent-assisted commerce is beginning to transform online shopping through controlled financial rails.</p><p> –</p><p>Full transcript available here: <br><a href="https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-past-present-and-future-of-ai-with-stripe/">www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-past-present-and-future-of-ai-with-stripe/</a></p><p><br></p><p>–<br>Sponsor: Vanta</p><p><br></p><p><a href="https://vanta.com/complex">Vanta</a> automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at <a href="https://vanta.com/complex">https://vanta.com/complex</a></p><p>–</p><p>Recommended in this episode:</p><ul><li>Stripe’s Annual Letter: <a href="https://stripe.com/annual-updates/2024">https://stripe.com/annual-updates/2024</a> </li><li>Stripe Sessions 2025 <a href="https://stripesessions.com/">https://stripesessions.com/</a> </li></ul><p>–</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) Intro</p><p>(01:21) Stripe's role in financial infrastructure</p><p>(02:20) AI and ML at Stripe</p><p>(07:36) Understanding payment processing</p><p>(15:06) The evolution of fraud detection</p><p>(19:22) Advanced fraud detection techniques</p><p>(22:55) Sponsor: Vanta</p><p>(24:14) Advanced fraud detection techniques (part 2)</p><p>(34:53) Card testing and fraud prevention</p><p>(45:29) Adaptive acceptance and future of payments</p><p>(46:35) Optimizing payment systems with AI</p><p>(47:13) Understanding ISO messages and credit card protocols</p><p>(48:37) The importance of semantically neutral changes</p><p>(51:22) Stripe's enhanced issuer network</p><p>(56:00) Handling chargebacks and friendly fraud</p><p>(01:04:55) Personalizing the checkout experience</p><p>(01:16:44) The meteoric rise of AI startups</p><p>(01:26:05) Agent-assisted commerce</p><p>(01:32:58) Wrap</p><p><br></p>
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