by Julia La Roche
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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8/7/2022
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April 19, 2025
<p>Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 249 to discuss the state of the economy.</p><p>Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia </p><p>In this episode, Dr. Shilling explains why he believes we are headed for a recession, if not already in one. He analyzes how Trump's tariff policies are disrupting global trade relationships and creating economic uncertainty while simultaneously forcing countries like China to the negotiating table. Despite these headwinds, Dr. Shilling reveals why he remains bullish on US Treasuries and the dollar as safe havens, shares his optimistic outlook on Indian stocks over Chinese investments, and advises listeners to build "fortress-like balance sheets" to weather the coming economic storm.</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>00:00 - Introduction and welcome back Dr. Shilling</p><p>01:50 - Historical context: US economic role since World War II</p><p>03:34 - Impact of globalization on US manufacturing</p><p>04:14 - Trump's changing approach to international trade</p><p>06:37 - China's position and recent willingness to negotiate</p><p>09:03 - Signs of recession and economic vulnerabilities</p><p>12:33 - Bond market volatility and US Treasury outlook</p><p>17:18 - Perspective on gold reaching record highs</p><p>19:11 - Current investment allocations and strategies</p><p>20:21 - Why India may surpass China in global leadership</p><p>24:19 - Media coverage of market fluctuations vs long-term outlook</p><p>26:47 - Dr. Shilling's history of contrarian economic predictions</p><p>29:56 - Assessment of current economic vulnerabilities</p><p>32:04 - Consumer debt and "buy now, pay later" trends</p><p>33:27 - The US debt bomb and dollar's reserve currency status</p><p>36:52 - Potential outcomes of tariff policies</p><p>39:43 - Contact information and subscription details</p><p>40:42 - Closing advice: maintaining a "fortress-like balance sheet"</p><p>Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).</p>
April 17, 2025
<p>New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-person episode to discuss the markets and the economy. </p><p>Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia </p><p>In this episode, McDonald discusses capital flows moving away from US markets. McDonald explains how European investors are pulling back following tariff policies and growing deficits. He discusses why copper, uranium, and oil services present value opportunities while predicting the possibility of "4000 gold and 4000 S&P." McDonald warns that America faces conditions with weakness in stocks, bonds, and currency simultaneously, creating what he calls a potential "Lehman moment" of uncertainty.</p><p><br></p><p>Links: </p><p>How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR </p><p>Twitter/X: https://x.com/convertbond</p><p>Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/</p><p><br></p><p>00:00 - Introduction and welcome Larry 02:26 - Institutional investor conversations and European capital flows05:00 - American exceptionalism and crowded US investments08:24 - Understanding Wall Street research and consensus thinking10:27 - The new investing era: Niall Ferguson's insights on multi-polar world11:55 - The coming copper crisis and investment opportunity17:12 - Gold as a stable store of value compared to Bitcoin20:00 - Uranium market opportunities and tourist investors21:44 - S&P earnings projections and market indicators24:18 - Value stock opportunities in a changing market26:10 - NASDAQ vs energy stocks: the massive valuation gap28:42 - Trump's tariff policy and its global investment impact32:21 - Tariffs as both regressive tax and tax on consumption35:00 - Tariff policy creating Lehman-like uncertainty39:14 - The "emerging market" problem facing the US40:00 - Closing thoughts on democratizing financial information</p>
April 5, 2025
<p>Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 247 to discuss tariffs, markets, and the economy. </p><p><br></p><p>Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia </p><p>Chris Whalen explains why the tariff debate is largely a distraction - part of Trump's "shock and awe" strategy to force trading partners to negotiate fairer terms as America attempts to end the Bretton Woods system after 75 years. He sees credit deterioration emerging in auto loans and credit cards while warning about multi-family housing defaults, particularly in smaller urban properties where market indicators show values 50% below their last sale. Despite market fears, Whalen believes the bond market is already cutting rates regardless of Fed action, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.94% due to strong demand for risk-free collateral and Treasury's efforts to reduce auction sizes. He predicts financial consolidation will continue, pointing to the mortgage industry shrinking to just five major lender/servicer groups, while suggesting investors should look for stock opportunities despite current volatility.</p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p>Links: </p><p>Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen </p><p>Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ </p><p>The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ </p><p>Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X</p><p>Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/ </p><p><br></p><p>0:00 Introduction1:27 Tariffs 3:03 Market reaction assessment5:11 Investment strategy amid volatility7:40 Historical context of tariffs10:37 Main Street vs Wall Street priorities11:17 Impact and distribution of tariff costs13:30 Consumer credit and lending trends15:34 Multi-family housing defaults17:36 Real estate overbuilding concerns18:17 Consumer recession outlook20:46 Job market and recession dynamics22:57 Fed outlook and rate environment24:52 Balance sheet impact discussion26:56 Treasury market outlook29:36 Client questions about market positioning30:57 Closing remarks and contact information</p><p><br></p>
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