by Dylan Riley & Brad DeLong
Hosts: Dylan Riley & Brad DeLong: The U.C. Berkeley Political Economy Podcast <br/><br/><a href="https://braddelong.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast">braddelong.substack.com</a>
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2/10/2021
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June 25, 2024
<p>Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...</p><p>Key Insights:</p><p>* Brad DeLong says: You say economics and economists in decline—I see bad economists in decline.</p><p>* Brad DeLong says: You see missile defense as remarkably effective—I see it as marginally effective, at best.</p><p>* Brad DeLong says: You say China Shock II—I say China Shock I required the GWB administration as witting and unwitting co-conspirator.</p><p>* Noah Smith says: These are self-refuting prophecies: my defense of missile defense was to say that it can be remarkably effective in a few possible instances, but those plausible ones for the next two decades; my title “the decade of the second China shock” and my subhead “brace yourselves” were intended to spur action to keep there from being a second China shock.</p><p>* Noah Smith says: Economists advising badly had a lot of influence in 2008 and after, and still have a substantial amount today—so the total influence of economists has decreased since 2008, and this is not necessarily a bad thing.</p><p>* The only real way to get nuance is to write a whole book and then have people deeply engage with it, which requires that they be on a trans-oceanic flight with dodgy Wi-Fi, and be otherwise bored.</p><p>* The internet makes us less nuanced than we should be.</p><p>* &, as always, HEXAPODIA!</p><p></p><p></p><p>References:</p><p>* <strong>Smith, Noah</strong>. 2024. “Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense”. <em>Noahpinion</em>. April 15. <<a target="_blank" href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-so-many-of-us-were-wrong-about">https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-so-many-of-us-were-wrong-about</a>>. </p><p>* <strong>Smith, Noah</strong>. 2024. “Twilight of the economists?” <em>Noahpinion.</em> April 12. <<a target="_blank" href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/twilight-of-the-economists">https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/twilight-of-the-economists</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Smith, Noah</strong>. 2024. “The decade of the Second China Shock”. March 23. <<a target="_blank" href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-decade-of-the-second-china-shock">https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-decade-of-the-second-china-shock</a>>.</p><p>&</p><p>* <strong>Vinge, Vernor</strong>. 1999. <em>A Deepness in the Sky</em>. New York: Tor Books. <<a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/Deepness-Sky-Zones-Thought/dp/0812536355">https://www.amazon.com/Deepness-Sky-Zones-Thought/dp/0812536355</a>>.</p> <br/><br/>Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at <a href="https://braddelong.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4">braddelong.substack.com/subscribe</a>
May 22, 2024
<p>Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...</p><p>Key Insights:</p><p>* A number of years ago, Brad DeLong said that it was time to “pass the baton” to “The Left”. How’s that working out for us? #actually, he had said that we <em>had</em> passed the baton—that the absence since January 21, 2009 (or possibly January 21, 1993) of Republican negotiating partners meant that sensible centrism produced nothing—that Barack Obama had proposed John McCain’s climate policy, Mitt Romney’s health care policy, George H.W. Bush’s entitlement-and-budget policy, Ronald Reagan’s tax policy, and Gerald Ford’s foreign policy, and had gotten precisely zero Republican votes for any of those. Therefore the only choice we had was to pass the baton to the Left in the hopes that they could energize the base and the disaffected to win majorities, and then offer strong support where there policies were better than the status quo.</p><p>* But my major initial take was that the major task was to resurrect a sensible center-right, in which I wished the Niskanen Center good luck, but was not optimistic.</p><p>* But everyone heard “Brad DeLong says neoliberals should ‘bend the knee’” to THE LEFT…</p><p>* That is interesting…</p><p>* Should neoliberals bend the knee?</p><p>* How has the left been doing with its baton? Not well at all, for anyone who defines “THE LEFT” to consist of former Bernie staffers who regard Elizabeth Warren as a neoliberal sellout.</p><p>* It has, once again, never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. </p><p>* But the conditions that required passing the baton to the left—High Mitch McConnellism, Republican unity saying “NO!” to everything by every Republican to make the Black president look like a weak failure—no longer hold.</p><p>* And the principal adversaries to good governance and a bright American future are reactionary theocrats, neofascist grifters, and true-believer right-neoliberals to the right and cost-disease socialists to the left.</p><p>* But in the middle, made up of ex-left-neoliberals and nearly all other right-thinking Americans, are we supply-side progressives.</p><p>* Instead, there is a governing coalition, in the Senate, composed of 70 senators, 50 Democrats and 20 Republicans, from Bernie Sanders through J.D. Vance—a supply-side progressive or supply-side Americanist coalition.</p><p>* It is therefore time to snatch the baton back, and give it to the supply-side progressivist policy-politics core, and then grab as many people to run alongside that core in the race as we possibly can.</p><p>* The Niskanen Center cannot be at the heart of the supply-side progressivist agenda because they are incrementalists and critics by nature.</p><p>* The principal business of “Leftist” activists over the past five years really has been and continues to be to try to grease the skids for the return of neofascism—just as the principal business of Ralph Nader and Naderites in 2000 was to grease the skids for upper-class tax cuts, catastrophic financial deregulation, and forever wars.</p><p>* &, as always, HEXAPODIA!</p><p>References:</p><p>* <strong>Beauchamp, Zack</strong>. 2019. "A Clinton-Era Centrist Democrat Explains Why It's Time to Give Democratic Socialists a Chance." <em>Vox</em>. March 4, 2019. <<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190304123456/https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/4/18246381/democrats-clinton-sanders-left-brad-delong">https://web.archive.org/web/20190304123456/https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/4/18246381/democrats-clinton-sanders-left-brad-delong</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Black, Bill</strong>. 2019. "Brad DeLong's Stunning Concession: Neoliberals Should Pass the Baton & Let the Left Lead." <em>Naked Capitalism</em>. March 5. <<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190305123456/https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/03/bill-black-analyzes-brad-delongs-stunning-concession-neoliberals-should-pass-baton-let-left-lead.html">https://web.archive.org/web/20190305123456/https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/03/bill-black-analyzes-brad-delongs-stunning-concession-neoliberals-should-pass-baton-let-left-lead.html</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>DeLong, J. Bradford</strong>. 2019. “David Walsh went to the Niskanen Center conference. He got hives…” Twitter. February 25. <<a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/delong/status/1100166150845939712.">https://twitter.com/delong/status/1100166150845939712>.</a></p><p>* <strong>DeLong, J. Bradford</strong>. 2019. "Carville & Hunt: Two Old White Guys Podcast." <em>Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality</em>. March 11. <<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190305123456/https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/03/carville-hunt-two-old-white-guys-podcast.html">https://web.archive.org/web/20190305123456/https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/03/carville-hunt-two-old-white-guys-podcast.html</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>DeLong, J. Bradford</strong>. 2019. "I Said 'Pass the Baton' to Those Further Left Than I, Not 'Bend the Knee.'" <em>Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality</em>. March 27. <<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190305123456/https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/03/i-said-pass-the-baton-to-those-further-left-than-i-not-bend-the-knee.html">https://web.archive.org/web/20190305123456/https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/03/i-said-pass-the-baton-to-those-further-left-than-i-not-bend-the-knee.html</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Elmaazi, Mohamed</strong>. 2019. "Famous Neoliberal Economist Says Centrism Has Failed." <em>The Canary</em>. March 15, 2019. <<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190315123456/https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2019/03/15/famous-neoliberal-economist-says-centrism-has-failed/">https://web.archive.org/web/20190315123456/https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2019/03/15/famous-neoliberal-economist-says-centrism-has-failed/</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>O’Reilly, Timothy</strong>. 2019. "This Interview with Brad DeLong is Very Compelling." LinkedIn. <<a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/timo3_this-interview-with-brad-delong-is-very-compelling-activity-6508399270297767936-86Hd/?trk=public_profile_like_view">https://www.linkedin.com/posts/timo3_this-interview-with-brad-delong-is-very-compelling-activity-6508399270297767936-86Hd/?trk=public_profile_like_view</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Douthat, Ross</strong>. 2019. "What’s Left of the Center-Left?" <em>New York Times</em>. March 5. <<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190305123456/https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/opinion/democrats-liberals-socialists-cultural-left.html">https://web.archive.org/web/20190305123456/https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/opinion/democrats-liberals-socialists-cultural-left.html</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Drum, Kevin</strong>. 2019. "A Neoliberal Says It's Time for Neoliberals to Pack It In." <em>Mother Jones</em>. March 5. <<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190305123456/https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2019/03/a-neoliberal-says-its-time-for-neoliberals-to-pack-it-in/">https://web.archive.org/web/20190305123456/https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2019/03/a-neoliberal-says-its-time-for-neoliberals-to-pack-it-in/</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Hundt, Reed, Brad DeLong, & Joshua Cohen</strong>. 2019."Neoliberalism and Its Discontents." <em>Commonwealth Club</em>. March 5. <<a target="_blank" href="https://www.commonwealthclub.org/events/archive/podcast/neoliberalism-and-its-discontents">https://www.commonwealthclub.org/events/archive/podcast/neoliberalism-and-its-discontents</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Konczal, Mike</strong>. 2019. "The Failures of Neoliberalism Are Bigger Than Politics." <em>Roosevelt Institute</em>. March 5. <<a target="_blank" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20190305123456/https://rooseveltinstitute.org/2019/03/05/the-failures-of-neoliberalism-are-bigger-than-politics/">https://web.archive.org/web/20190305123456/https://rooseveltinstitute.org/2019/03/05/the-failures-of-neoliberalism-are-bigger-than-politics/</a>>.</p><p>&</p><p>* <strong>Vinge, Vernor</strong>. 1999. <em>A Deepness in the Sky</em>. New York: Tor Books. <<a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/Deepness-Sky-Zones-Thought/dp/0812536355">https://www.amazon.com/Deepness-Sky-Zones-Thought/dp/0812536355</a>>.</p><p></p> <br/><br/>Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at <a href="https://braddelong.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4">braddelong.substack.com/subscribe</a>
May 14, 2024
<p>Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...</p><p>Key Insights:</p><p>* Someone is wrong on the internet! Specifically Brad… He needs to shape up and scrub his brain… </p><p>* Back in the 2000s, Brad argued that the U.S. should over the next few generations try to pass the baton of world leadership to a prosperous, democratic, liberal China…</p><p>* Back in the 2000s, Noah thought that Brad was wrong—he looked at the Chinese Communist Party, and he thought: communist parties do not do “coëxistence”…</p><p>* Noah understands people with a limitless authoritarian desire for power—people like Trump, Xi, Putin, and in the reverse Abe—and the systems that nurture and promote them…</p><p>* Why did Brad go wrong? Excessive reliance in the deep structures of his brain on the now 60-year-old <em>Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord and Peasant in the Making of the Modern World.</em></p><p>* Why did Brad go wrong? A failure to understand Lenin’s <em>party of a new type</em> as a bureaucratic-cultural organization…</p><p>* Suggestions for what Brad DeLong should earn during his forthcoming stint in the reëducation camp are welcome…</p><p>* &, as always, Hexapodia…</p><p>References:</p><p>* <strong>Bear, Greg.</strong> 1985. <em>Blood Music</em>. New York: Arbor House. <<a target="_blank" href="https://www.lwcurrey.com/pages/books/103667/greg-bear/blood-music">https://www.lwcurrey.com/pages/books/103667/greg-bear/blood-music</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Brown, Kerry</strong>. 2022. <em>Xi: A Study in Power</em>. London: Icon Books.<<a target="_blank" href="https://www.kerry-brown.co.uk/books/xi-a-study-in-power">https://www.kerry-brown.co.uk/books/xi-a-study-in-power</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Cai, Xia</strong>. 2022. "The Weakness of Xi Jinping: How Hubris and Paranoia Threaten China’s Future." <em>Foreign Affairs</em>. September/October. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinping-china-weakness-hubris-paranoia-threaten-future">https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinping-china-weakness-hubris-paranoia-threaten-future</a>.</p><p>* <strong>DeLong, J. Bradford</strong>. 2019. "What to Do About China?" Project Syndicate, June 5. <<a target="_blank" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-america-relations-trump-diplomatic-weakness-by-j-bradford-delong-2019-06">https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-america-relations-trump-diplomatic-weakness-by-j-bradford-delong-2019-06</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>DeLong, J. Bradford</strong>. 2019. "America’s Superpower Panic". Project Syndicate, August 14. <<a target="_blank" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-china-superpower-rivalry-history-by-j-bradford-delong-2019-08">https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-china-superpower-rivalry-history-by-j-bradford-delong-2019-08</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>DeLong, J. Bradford</strong>. 2023. "Theses on China, the US, Political-Economic Systems, Global Value Chains, & the Relationship". <em>Grasping Reality</em>. Accessed June 19. <<a target="_blank" href="https://braddelong.substack.com/p/theses-on-china-e-us-political-economic">https://braddelong.substack.com/p/theses-on-china-e-us-political-economic</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Lampton, David M</strong>. 2019. <em>Following the Leader: Ruling China, from Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping</em>. Berkeley: University of California Press.<h<a target="_blank" href="http://ttps://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520303478/following-the-leader">ttps://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520303478/following-the-leader</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Moore, Barrington</strong>, Jr. 1966. <em>Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord & Peasant in the Making of the Modern World</em>. Boston: Beacon Press. <<a target="_blank" href="https://archive.org/details/socialoriginsofd0000unse_v4l0">https://archive.org/details/socialoriginsofd0000unse_v4l0</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Pronin, Ivan, & Mikhail Stepichev</strong>. 1969. <em>Leninist Standards of Party Life</em>. Moscow: Progress Publishers. <<a target="_blank" href="https://archive.org/details/leninist-standardsof-party-life_202307">https://archive.org/details/leninist-standardsof-party-life_202307</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Sandbu, Martin</strong>. 2022. “Brad DeLong: ‘The US is now an anti-globalisation outlier’”. <em>Financial Times</em>. November 23. <<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/791fe484-595f-44f9-86e7-55bdbbbd22e8">https://www.ft.com/content/791fe484-595f-44f9-86e7-55bdbbbd22e8</a>>.</p><p>* <strong>Sasaki, Norihiko</strong>. 2023. "Functions and Significance of the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms and the Central Comprehensively Deepening Reforms Commission." <em>Chinese Journal of Political Science</em> 28 (3): 1-15. Accessed May 14, 2024. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24761028.2023.2185394">https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24761028.2023.2185394</a>.</p><p>* <strong>Shambaugh, David</strong>, ed. 2020. <em>China and the World</em>. New York: Oxford University Press. <<a target="_blank" href="https://academic.oup.com/book/32164">https://academic.oup.com/book/32164</a>>.</p><p>&</p><p>* <strong>Vinge, Vernor</strong>. 1999. <em>A Deepness in the Sky</em>. New York: Tor Books. <<a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/Deepness-Sky-Zones-Thought/dp/0812536355">https://www.amazon.com/Deepness-Sky-Zones-Thought/dp/0812536355</a>>.</p> <br/><br/>Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at <a href="https://braddelong.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4">braddelong.substack.com/subscribe</a>
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