by LessWrong
<p>Audio narrations of LessWrong posts. Includes all curated posts and all posts with 125+ karma.<br><br>If you'd like more, subscribe to the “Lesswrong (30+ karma)” feed.</p>
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Publishing Since
6/20/2022
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April 21, 2025
Subtitle: Bad for loss of control risks, bad for concentration of power risks I’ve had this sitting in my drafts for the last year. I wish I’d been able to release it sooner, but on the bright side, it’ll make a lot more sense to people who have already read AI 2027. There's a good chance that AGI will be trained before this decade is out. By AGI I mean “An AI system at least as good as the best human X’ers, for all cognitive tasks/skills/jobs X.” Many people seem to be dismissing this...
April 20, 2025
Though, given my doomerism, I think the natsec framing of the AGI race is likely wrongheaded, let me accept the Dario/Leopold/Altman frame that AGI will be aligned to the national interest of a great power. These people seem to take as an axiom that a USG AGI will be better in some way than CCP AGI. Has anyone written justification for this assumption? I am neither an American citizen nor a Chinese citizen. What would it mean for an AGI to be aligned with "Democracy" or "Confucianism" o...
April 17, 2025
Introduction Writing this post puts me in a weird epistemic position. I simultaneously believe that: The reasoning failures that I'll discuss are strong evidence that current LLM- or, more generally, transformer-based approaches won't get us AGI As soon as major AI labs read about the specific reasoning failures described here, they might fix them But future versions of GPT, Claude etc. succeeding at the tasks I've described here will provide zero evidence of their ability to reach AG...
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Dwarkesh Patel
Erik Torenberg
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Patrick McKenzie
Tristan Harris and Aza Raskin, The Center for Humane Technology
Turpentine
Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Sam Harris
Russ Roberts
Nonzero
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Michael Shermer
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