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April 13, 2025
<p><strong>【聊了什么】</strong></p> <p>特朗普在4月2日「解放日」突然宣布对全球主要贸易伙伴加征高额「对等关税」，引发金融市场剧烈动荡。在短短一周内经历了180度大转弯——对除中国外的多数国家暂停征收额外关税，但对华关税则进一步升级。</p> <p>这背后究竟发生了什么？是特朗普政府深思熟虑的「一盘大棋」，旨在重塑全球贸易格局、打击特定国家？还是白宫内部不同派系——财政部、贸易鹰派（如纳瓦罗）、经济顾问（如Stephen Miran）——目标各异、甚至相互矛盾的结果？特朗普本人对关税根深蒂固的执念，与他第二任期不受约束的执政风格，又在其中扮演了什么角色？</p> <p>本期节目，我们邀请了全球市场的交易员Sagar一起深入解读这场关税风暴。</p> <p>本期节目录制于4月12日。</p> <p><strong>【支持我们】</strong></p> <p>如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：</p> <p>也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： <a href="https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/">https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/</a></p> <p>会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。</p> <p>合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]</p> <p><strong>【时间轴】</strong></p> <p><a href="#t=02:04">02:04</a> 事件回顾：特朗普4月2日宣布「对等关税」及后续反转</p> <p><a href="#t=04:01">04:01</a> 关税公式背后的荒谬逻辑</p> <p><a href="#t=07:18">07:18</a> 特朗普对关税的长期执念 vs 第二任期的放飞自我</p> <p><a href="#t=12:43">12:43</a> 三盘「大棋」：财政部 vs 纳瓦罗 vs 米兰</p> <p><a href="#t=17:09">17:09</a> 市场反应与经济影响</p> <p><a href="#t=24:47">24:47</a> 特朗普的核心动机：财政压力还是个人意志？</p> <p><a href="#t=30:00">30:00</a> 美债市场的动荡及其影响</p> <p><a href="#t=42:18">42:18</a> 政治影响：国会反应、特朗普党内控制力</p> <p><a href="#t=01:03:25">01:03:25</a> 未来展望：谈判前景、多边贸易体系的挑战</p> <p><a href="#t=01:07:01">01:07:01</a> TikTok问题与中美贸易谈判</p> <p><strong>【我们是谁】</strong></p> <p>美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。</p> <p>我们的主播和嘉宾：</p> <p>小华：媒体人</p> <p>王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子</p> <p>Sagar：全球市场交易员</p> <p><strong>【 What We Talked About】</strong></p> <p>On "Liberation Day," April 2nd, Donald Trump abruptly announced hefty "reciprocal tariffs" on major global trading partners, sending shockwaves through financial markets. Within just one week, the policy underwent a dramatic U-turn – additional tariffs were suspended for most countries except China, whose tariffs were instead escalated.</p> <p>What truly happened behind the scenes? Was it a calculated "grand strategy" by the Trump administration aimed at reshaping global trade and targeting specific nations? Or was it the result of conflicting, even contradictory, goals among different factions within the White House – the Treasury Department, trade hawks like Navarro, and economic advisors like Stephen Miran? What role did Trump's own deep-seated obsession with tariffs and his less constrained governing style in his second term play?</p> <p>In this episode, we invite Sagar, a global markets trader, for an in-depth analysis of this tariff turmoil.</p> <p>This episode was recorded on April 12th.</p> <p><strong>【Support Us】</strong></p> <p>If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:</p> <p>Join our membership program: <a href="https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/">https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/</a></p> <p>Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette</p> <p>Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]</p> <p><strong>【Timeline】</strong></p> <p><a href="#t=02:04">02:04</a> Recap: Trump's April 2nd "Reciprocal Tariffs" & Subsequent Reversals</p> <p><a href="#t=04:01">04:01</a> The Absurd Logic Behind the Tariff Formula</p> <p><a href="#t=07:18">07:18</a> Trump's Longstanding Tariff Obsession vs. Second Term Unbound</p> <p><a href="#t=12:43">12:43</a> Three "Grand Strategies": Treasury vs. Navarro vs. Miran</p> <p><a href="#t=17:09">17:09</a> Market Reaction & Economic Impact</p> <p><a href="#t=24:47">24:47</a> Trump's Core Motivations: Fiscal Pressure or Personal Will?</p> <p><a href="#t=30:00">30:00</a> US Treasury Market Turmoil & Its Impacts</p> <p><a href="#t=42:18">42:18</a> Political Fallout: Congressional Reaction, Trump's GOP Control</p> <p><a href="#t=01:03:25">01:03:25</a> Future Outlook: Negotiation Prospects, Challenges to Multilateral Trade</p> <p><a href="#t=01:07:01">01:07:01</a> The TikTok Issue & US-China Trade Talks</p> <p><strong>【Who We Are】</strong></p> <p>The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.</p> <p>Our Hosts and Guests:</p> <p>小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer</p> <p>王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information</p> <p>Sagar: Global Markets Trader</p> <p>【The Links】</p> <p><a href="https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations">https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations</a></p> <p><a href="https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf">https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf</a></p> <p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/">https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/</a></p>
April 6, 2025
<p><strong>【聊了什么】</strong></p> <p><strong>本期节目由<a href="https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episode/67ebaa78f98b7b10b5455ffc">《这瓜有毒》</a>制作，录制于3月中旬。</strong></p> <p>本期节目聚焦美国科研界在特朗普第二次执政后所面临的空前挑战。几位嘉宾分享了他们的第一手观察——从政府大规模裁员、联邦经费冻结，到频频传出的各种“关键字”审查，一连串政策变化让科研机构和高校都陷入了前所未有的混乱。</p> <p>很多研究项目和人才因此停摆或外流，更令人担忧的是，部分公共卫生与基础科研项目可能因此断档，影响范围远远超出美国本土。</p> <p>除了官方与学术机构的角力，本期节目还提及多位科研工作者的亲身体会。他们与主持人讨论了在经费不确定、审查规则模糊的情况下，如何调整研究方向，或者转向其他领域谋出路。这些应对方法虽然艰难，但也反映出当科研环境被政策因素扰动时，人们必须不断摸索新生存方式。</p> <p>从长远来看，科研生态一旦受损，影响的绝不仅是论文发表或学术奖项，还有可能带来公共卫生、国际合作等多方面的风险。节目的核心信息是：学术界需要更多互相支持与协力，也需积极与公众保持沟通，争取让科学研究在复杂环境里依然能生根发芽。</p> <p><strong>【支持我们】</strong></p> <p>如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：</p> <p>也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： <a href="https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/">https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/</a></p> <p>会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。</p> <p>合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]</p> <p><strong>【嘉宾介绍】</strong></p> <p>孔孔：这瓜有毒主播</p> <p>Y博：药企科学家，专注于新药研发及科普创作。其微信公众号 @一个生物狗的科普小园 广受好评。</p> <p>Talich：美轮美换主播，现居亚利桑那的美国政治和文化历史爱好者。</p> <p><strong>【时间轴】</strong></p> <p>02:15 初步讨论科研经费冻结 嘉宾提到 NIH、NSF 等科研机构出现的经费暂停，并分享第一手观察，说明不少研究项目无故被搁置。</p> <p>07:10 裁员风波与内部混乱 大量政府部门和高校开始裁员或冻结职位，导致项目审批停摆。嘉宾们举例说明这一政策对研究人员个人与团队的冲击。</p> <p>10:25 “关键字审查”的荒诞例 从 “woman”“transgender” 等词遭到过滤，到与疫苗研究及中美合作相关的项目被取消，探讨这背后可能的政治逻辑。</p> <p>15:40 公共卫生的隐忧 麻疹、禽流感等疾病的防控工作也难以幸免；政府层面的信息发布与应对协调存在明显滞后风险。</p> <p>21:05 高校的应对与困境 多所知名大学开始缩减博士生名额、暂停招生或项目；对年轻研究者而言，职业前景骤然受挫。</p> <p>24:10 个人感受与现实选择 科研人员谈到应对策略，部分人考虑转向私营企业或跨国合作，另一些则只能等待政策走向明朗。</p> <p>28:35 马斯克的角色与政府关系 马斯克在裁员和管理层面所扮演的作用，如何与特朗普政府形成强势“组合拳”，对科技产业也产生辐射影响。</p> <p>33:20 长期影响：科研生态断裂与人才流失 减少科研投入可能带来的潜在代价，不仅限于美国，更会波及国际学术合作与基础研究发展。</p> <p><strong>【我们是谁】</strong></p> <p>美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。</p> <p><strong>【 What We Talked About】</strong></p> <p><strong>This episode was produced by 这瓜有毒 and recorded in mid-March.</strong></p> <p>This episode focuses on the unprecedented challenges facing the American research community following Donald Trump’s return to power. Our guests share first-hand accounts of what they’ve witnessed—massive government layoffs, a freeze on federal funding, and increasing reports of politically driven “keyword” censorship. These policy shifts have thrown research institutions and universities into an era of chaos not seen before.</p> <p>Many research projects have been halted or abandoned, and researchers are leaving the field or the country altogether. Even more concerning is the potential collapse of key public health initiatives and basic science programs, with ripple effects far beyond the United States.</p> <p>Beyond the clash between official institutions and academia, this episode also highlights the personal experiences of scientists on the ground. In conversation with the host, they discuss how they’ve had to shift their research focus—or leave their fields entirely—amid budget uncertainty and vague, shifting censorship rules. These tough decisions reveal how deeply political interference is reshaping the scientific environment, and how researchers must continually adapt to survive.</p> <p>In the long run, a damaged research ecosystem affects far more than academic publications or professional accolades—it carries risks for public health, global scientific collaboration, and technological progress. The core message of this episode: the academic community must foster greater solidarity, maintain open lines of communication with the public, and continue planting the seeds of science—even in hostile soil.</p> <p><strong>【Support Us】</strong></p> <p>If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:</p> <p>Join our membership program: <a href="https://theamericanroulette.com/">https://theamericanroulette.com/</a></p> <p>Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette</p> <p>Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]</p> <p><strong>【Timeline】</strong></p> <p>02:15 – Initial Discussion on Research Funding Freeze Guests discuss the suspension of funding from agencies like the NIH and NSF, sharing first-hand observations of research projects being stalled or canceled without explanation.</p> <p>07:10 – Layoff Waves and Institutional Chaos Widespread layoffs and hiring freezes across government agencies and universities have paralyzed project approvals. Guests provide examples of how these policies have directly impacted individual researchers and teams.</p> <p>10:25 – The Absurdity of “Keyword Censorship” Terms like “woman” and “transgender” have reportedly been filtered out, and projects related to vaccines or U.S.-China collaborations canceled. The guests explore the possible political motivations behind these actions.</p> <p>15:40 – Public Health in Jeopardy Disease control efforts for illnesses like measles and avian flu are not spared. There are serious concerns about delays and dysfunction in how the government communicates and coordinates public health responses.</p> <p>21:05 – Universities' Response and Dilemmas Prestigious universities are cutting PhD slots, pausing admissions, or shutting down programs entirely. For early-career researchers, this has suddenly upended their career prospects.</p> <p>24:10 – Personal Stories and Hard Choices Researchers describe their strategies to adapt: some are shifting to private sector roles or international collaborations, while others are stuck in limbo, waiting for the political climate to stabilize.</p> <p>28:35 – Elon Musk’s Role and Ties to Government Musk’s involvement in layoffs and organizational shakeups is examined, along with how his alignment with the Trump administration forms a powerful force reshaping the tech and science landscape.</p> <p>33:20 – Long-Term Impact: A Broken Research Ecosystem and Talent Exodus Cuts in research investment may have long-term costs, not just for the U.S. but for global scientific cooperation and the future of foundational research.</p>
March 17, 2025
<p><strong>【聊了什么】</strong></p> <p>对于加密货币了解或不了解的朋友们，相信大家都知道，特朗普在就职前夕发行了一个以自己名字命名的meme币”特朗普币”，曾一度成为全球市值最高的meme币之一，总市值一度超过100亿美元，但截至3月7日，其价格已从最高点下跌超过80%。</p> <p>特朗普在竞选期间积极与支持加密货币的选民互动，并承诺就任后推出有利于加密行业的政策。从竞选期间到现在，我们见证了比特币突破10万美元大关，特朗普任命风险投资家David Sachs为加密和人工智能”沙皇”，以及最近签署行政命令建立战略性比特币储备，兑现了他竞选时的承诺。然而，随着近期股市和加密货币价格的波动，我们不禁要问：对于加密行业而言，特朗普政府究竟可靠吗？加密货币价格在3月7日延续近期颓势。这也引发了投资人对特朗普政府政策实际效果的思考。</p> <p>最后向大家实话实说，参加这集播客的几个人其实都买了特朗普的meme币（羞耻脸），经历了其价格的大起大落。通过特朗普币的涨跌，我们想聊聊自己的故事，并探讨特朗普政府对加密行业的影响。</p> <p><strong>本期节目前半段录制于2月10日，补充录制于3月9日。</strong></p> <p><strong>【支持我们】</strong></p> <p>如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：</p> <p>也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： <a href="https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/">https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/</a></p> <p>会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。</p> <p>合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]</p> <p><strong>【时间轴】</strong></p> <p><a href="#t=01:45">01:45</a> 真心话时刻：我们的买币故事</p> <p><a href="#t=20:44">20:44</a> 币圈内部对Trump meme coin有什么反应？</p> <p><a href="#t=29:55">29:55</a> Trump对于crypto的前后态度转变，从2019 Trump反对比特币到现在支持，中间发生了什么？Defi和稳定币的诞生，更多meme coin的出现</p> <p><a href="#t=47:05">47:05</a> 之前SEC的主席Gary Gansler对于加密货币的严厉政策</p> <p><a href="#t=54:10">54:10</a> 白宫的新任加密和人工智能”沙皇”David Sachs是谁？他的All-in podcast是什么？</p> <p><a href="#t=01:13:15">01:13:15</a> 补录内容：节目录完将近一个月后，Trump政府和加密圈子又有了翻天覆地的变化，更新一下最近的动向，包括分析最近白宫的建立战略性比特币储备的行政令等</p> <p><strong>【我们是谁】</strong></p> <p>美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。</p> <p>我们的主播和嘉宾：</p> <p>小华：媒体人</p> <p>Afra: 科技和crypto从业者，自由撰稿人，住在湾区和伦敦，个人网站: afra.work</p> <p>胖花花：<a href="https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/6591bc4f6396a4645a64d833">《研究研究》</a>主播</p> <p><strong>【 What We Talked About】</strong></p> <p>Whether you're familiar with cryptocurrencies or not, you've likely heard that President Trump launched a meme coin bearing his own name shortly before his inauguration. "Trump Coin" rapidly became one of the world's most valuable meme coins, achieving a market cap of over $10 billion at its peak. However, by March 7th, its value had plummeted by more than 80% from the all-time high.</p> <p>During his campaign, Trump actively courted pro-crypto voters, promising favorable policies for the cryptocurrency industry. Since Trump's win in 2024 election, notable developments include Bitcoin surpassing the $100,000 mark, Trump's appointment of venture capitalist David Sachs as his "Crypto and AI Czar," and the recent executive order establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve—actions that align closely with his campaign promises. Yet, amidst recent volatility in both stock and crypto markets, we must ask: Is the Trump administration genuinely reliable for the crypto sector? The continued downward trend in cryptocurrency prices observed on March 7th has prompted investors to reassess the true effectiveness of the administration's crypto policies.</p> <p>Full disclosure: Every participant in this podcast invested in Trump's meme coin, personally experiencing its dramatic price fluctuations. Through sharing our firsthand experiences with the rise and fall of Trump Coin, we aim to examine and discuss the broader impact of the Trump administration on the cryptocurrency landscape.</p> <p><strong>Note: The first half of this episode was recorded on February 10th, with additional recording completed on March 9th.</strong></p> <p><strong>【Support Us】</strong></p> <p>If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:</p> <p>Join our membership program: <a href="https://theamericanroulette.com/">https://theamericanroulette.com/</a></p> <p>Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette</p> <p>Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]</p> <p><strong>【Timeline】</strong></p> <p><a href="#t=01:45">01:45</a> Moment of Truth: Our Meme Coin Apeing Stories</p> <p><a href="#t=20:44">20:44</a> Crypto Community's Reaction to Trump's Meme Coin</p> <p><a href="#t=29:55">29:55</a> Evaluating Trump's Impact on the Crypto Landscape</p> <p><a href="#t=47:05">47:05</a> Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler's Influence and Legacy</p> <p><a href="#t=54:10">54:10</a> Who is David Sachs, the "Crypto and AI Czar"?</p> <p><a href="#t=01:06:50">01:06:50</a> Former Crypto Critics React to Trump's Executive Order</p> <p><a href="#t=01:13:15">01:13:15</a> Additional Content: Recent dramatic changes in the crypto landscape nearly one month after initial recording, including an analysis of Trump's executive order on a strategic Bitcoin reserve.</p> <p><strong>【Who We Are】</strong></p> <p>The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.</p> <p>Our Hosts and Guests:</p> <p>小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer</p> <p>Afra: a tech and crypto professional based in the Bay Area and London, as well as a freelance writer. Website: afra.work</p> <p>Pang Huahua: host of the “Research Research” podcast.</p> <p><strong>【The Links】</strong></p> <p>World Liberity Financial: <a href="https://www.worldlibertyfinancial.com/">https://www.worldlibertyfinancial.com/</a></p> <p>All-in Podcast: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@allin">https://www.youtube.com/@allin</a></p>
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