by 表舅和表舅的朋友们
<p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">聊一些理财和基金的话题<br /></p>
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🇨🇳
Publishing Since
9/25/2024
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September 25, 2024
<p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><b>聊天的人</b></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">嘉捷，中欧基金主持人</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">表舅，公众号「表舅是养基大户」主理人</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">王申，中欧基金固定收益投资部研究组负责人、基金经理</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">周琳，中欧基金固定收益投资部研究员</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><b>时间轴</b></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><b>Part 1：</b><b>超预期降息5</b><b>0</b><b>BP</b><b>，</b><b>如何解读美联储背后的决策逻辑？</b></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">03:50市场预期从降息25BP到50BP，为什么这次的分歧这么大？</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">06:49 美国经济崩盘了吗？这些指标观测美国经济健康度</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">08:33衰退式降息VS预防式降息——应对经济硬着陆与软着陆，美联储如何操作？</p><p data-flag="normal" style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;"><img data-key="0" src="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/d277-audiofreehighqps/89/0E/GAqh1YkKydokAADI1wMVcFxU.png!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-origin="http://fdfs.xmcdn.com/storages/d277-audiofreehighqps/89/0E/GAqh1YkKydokAADI1wMVcFxU.png" data-preview-width="140" data-large="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/d277-audiofreehighqps/89/0E/GAqh1YkKydokAADI1wMVcFxU.png!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-large-height="134" data-preview="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/d277-audiofreehighqps/89/0E/GAqh1YkKydokAADI1wMVcFxU.png!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_small" data-large-width="750" data-preview-height="25"></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">数据来源：Wind，中欧基金整理。</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"> 12:16 一个神奇的指标「萨姆法则」，现在看还灵验吗？</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><img data-key="1" src="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/b5ce-audiofreehighqps/92/B7/GAqh1usKydolAAIlqgMVcF0b.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-origin="http://fdfs.xmcdn.com/storages/b5ce-audiofreehighqps/92/B7/GAqh1usKydolAAIlqgMVcF0b.jpg" data-preview-width="140" data-large="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/b5ce-audiofreehighqps/92/B7/GAqh1usKydolAAIlqgMVcF0b.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-large-height="520" data-preview="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/b5ce-audiofreehighqps/92/B7/GAqh1usKydolAAIlqgMVcF0b.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_small" data-large-width="750" data-preview-height="97"></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">数据来源：wind，中欧基金整理。</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">14:51历次降息之后，各类资产如何表现？黄金多走强，美债多下行，美股有分化……</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;"><img data-key="2" src="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/c7e6-audiofreehighqps/EC/AF/GKwRIDoKydolAAE23gMVcF2I.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-origin="http://fdfs.xmcdn.com/storages/c7e6-audiofreehighqps/EC/AF/GKwRIDoKydolAAE23gMVcF2I.jpg" data-preview-width="140" data-large="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/c7e6-audiofreehighqps/EC/AF/GKwRIDoKydolAAE23gMVcF2I.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-large-height="513" data-preview="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/c7e6-audiofreehighqps/EC/AF/GKwRIDoKydolAAE23gMVcF2I.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_small" data-large-width="750" data-preview-height="95"></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><img data-key="3" src="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/7c80-audiofreehighqps/1C/55/GKwRIJEKydomAAFLhQMVcF45.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-origin="http://fdfs.xmcdn.com/storages/7c80-audiofreehighqps/1C/55/GKwRIJEKydomAAFLhQMVcF45.jpg" data-preview-width="140" data-large="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/7c80-audiofreehighqps/1C/55/GKwRIJEKydomAAFLhQMVcF45.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-large-height="513" data-preview="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/7c80-audiofreehighqps/1C/55/GKwRIJEKydomAAFLhQMVcF45.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_small" data-large-width="750" data-preview-height="95"></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><img data-key="4" src="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/6da7-audiofreehighqps/C7/A5/GKwRIJIKydonAAExLgMVcF7H.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-origin="http://fdfs.xmcdn.com/storages/6da7-audiofreehighqps/C7/A5/GKwRIJIKydonAAExLgMVcF7H.jpg" data-preview-width="140" data-large="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/6da7-audiofreehighqps/C7/A5/GKwRIJIKydonAAExLgMVcF7H.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-large-height="513" data-preview="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/6da7-audiofreehighqps/C7/A5/GKwRIJIKydonAAExLgMVcF7H.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_small" data-large-width="750" data-preview-height="95"></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">数据来源：wind，中欧基金整理。</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><b>Part 2：</b><b>这一轮降息，为什么不一样？我们正在经历全球宏观经济格局重塑</b></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">19:43美国利率下调，除了利多中国债市，还会如何影响A股风格？</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">23:43 港股更直接受益于美联储降息，部分板块值得关注</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">25:17 降息之后，红利资产、上游资源品机会还会持续吗？</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">26:09 地缘政治博弈大潮下，全球供应链开始重构，从追求效率到追求安全</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;"><img data-key="5" src="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/1be6-audiofreehighqps/05/39/GKwRIMAKydonAAEp7wMVcF9l.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-origin="http://fdfs.xmcdn.com/storages/1be6-audiofreehighqps/05/39/GKwRIMAKydonAAEp7wMVcF9l.jpg" data-preview-width="140" data-large="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/1be6-audiofreehighqps/05/39/GKwRIMAKydonAAEp7wMVcF9l.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-large-height="562" data-preview="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/1be6-audiofreehighqps/05/39/GKwRIMAKydonAAEp7wMVcF9l.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_small" data-large-width="750" data-preview-height="105"></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;"><img data-key="6" src="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/1c9d-audiofreehighqps/B7/EC/GKwRINsKydooAAGsqQMVcGAy.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-origin="http://fdfs.xmcdn.com/storages/1c9d-audiofreehighqps/B7/EC/GKwRINsKydooAAGsqQMVcGAy.jpg" data-preview-width="140" data-large="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/1c9d-audiofreehighqps/B7/EC/GKwRINsKydooAAGsqQMVcGAy.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-large-height="572" data-preview="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/1c9d-audiofreehighqps/B7/EC/GKwRINsKydooAAGsqQMVcGAy.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_small" data-large-width="750" data-preview-height="106"></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">数据来源：wind，中欧基金整理。</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">30:17 「控通胀」VS「促就业」，美联储的货币政策目标向哪一方倾斜？</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">32:15 逆全球化趋势下，美国主导制造业回流，通胀中枢出现上移</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><img data-key="7" src="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/73fc-audiofreehighqps/74/06/GKwRIRwKydopAAFcjQMVcGDL.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-origin="http://fdfs.xmcdn.com/storages/73fc-audiofreehighqps/74/06/GKwRIRwKydopAAFcjQMVcGDL.jpg" data-preview-width="140" data-large="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/73fc-audiofreehighqps/74/06/GKwRIRwKydopAAFcjQMVcGDL.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-large-height="562" data-preview="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/73fc-audiofreehighqps/74/06/GKwRIRwKydopAAFcjQMVcGDL.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_small" data-large-width="750" data-preview-height="105"></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><img data-key="8" src="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/e3d8-audiofreehighqps/15/52/GKwRIUEKydopAAGeWgMVcGFW.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-origin="http://fdfs.xmcdn.com/storages/e3d8-audiofreehighqps/15/52/GKwRIUEKydopAAGeWgMVcGFW.jpg" data-preview-width="140" data-large="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/e3d8-audiofreehighqps/15/52/GKwRIUEKydopAAGeWgMVcGFW.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-large-height="562" data-preview="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/e3d8-audiofreehighqps/15/52/GKwRIUEKydopAAGeWgMVcGFW.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_small" data-large-width="750" data-preview-height="105"></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><img data-key="9" src="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/b7fc-audiofreehighqps/D2/51/GKwRIW4KydoqAAHshgMVcGJM.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-origin="http://fdfs.xmcdn.com/storages/b7fc-audiofreehighqps/D2/51/GKwRIW4KydoqAAHshgMVcGJM.jpg" data-preview-width="140" data-large="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/b7fc-audiofreehighqps/D2/51/GKwRIW4KydoqAAHshgMVcGJM.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_large" data-large-height="538" data-preview="http://imagev2.xmcdn.com/storages/b7fc-audiofreehighqps/D2/51/GKwRIW4KydoqAAHshgMVcGJM.jpg!op_type=4&upload_type=attachment&device_type=ios&name=mobile_small" data-large-width="750" data-preview-height="100"></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">数据来源：wind，中欧基金整理。</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">36:12 降息周期之下，海外新兴市场会有什么样的表现？</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">40:08 中国步入低利率时代，宽松货币政策为经济新旧动能转换创造更适宜环境</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">48:08 “最关注降息的人，是房产中介和保险销售？”——降息之后，楼市会受影响吗？保险要赶紧上车吗？</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><b>Part 3：</b><b>面对新宏观周期，我们可以抓住哪些确定性机会？</b></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">58:47 中国央行的货币政策目标有哪些？为什么说我们是多目标制的货币政策导向？</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">60:13美元指数下行，人民币汇率走强趋势会持续多久？</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">62:38 本轮降息，预计会是一个短周期还是长周期？</p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal">64:33 最后一句话总结：低利率时代下，普通投资者该如何调整资产配置？</p><span><br></span>
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