by 墙裂坛
<p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>墙裂坛：</span><span>用另一种方法来解读金融。不是用数学模型、经济学理论，而是用社会人类学、文史哲、艺术…这些与“人性”天然接近的知识来解读。</span></p><p style="font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;color:#333333;font-weight:normal;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span><span><span>墙裂坛里的每个人都有个撞墙的梦想，想把金融和其他学科的界限撞开，</span>希望和你一起解除思想上的自我隔离，一起讨论、一起解惑～</span><br /></span></p>
Language
🇨🇳
Publishing Since
7/1/2020
Email Addresses
1 available
Phone Numbers
0 available
April 12, 2025
<p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>本期（录制于4月10日）和在债市一线战斗了一周的郑老师一起分析：美债市场发生了什么？美元怎么了？懂王为什么突然大逆转？我们该怎么防守？中美之间最终台阶可能在哪里？以及我们的政策该如何出牌？</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>·时间戳·</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:03:00</span></a><span> 死去活来（又死去）的市场：从“解放日”到“大奇迹日”（或称“认怂日”）</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:05:57</span></a><span> 美债为何异常波动？</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:15:29</span></a><span> 中国抛售美债作为反制武器？</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:18:33</span></a><span> 特朗普为何突然推迟关税，“大赦天下”？</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:24:29</span></a><span> 特朗普关税团队的内部博弈</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:27:26</span></a><span> 关税政策的历史渊源与真实目的</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:35:17</span></a><span> 关税战后续走向预测</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:40:57</span></a><span> 短期、中期有解决方案，但长期影响只能是世界秩序重塑</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>01:03:01</span></a><span> 我们会见证“历史级别无厘头事件”：懂王被MAGA背刺吗？</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>文字版</span><span>（播客平台长度受限），</span><span>请至《墙裂坛》公众号收看！</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>— End —</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>专栏主播｜郑朗 肖小跑</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>编辑｜坛子</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>申请加入坛友群，请添加坛子微信：BKsufe，请注明：坛友</span></p>
April 8, 2025
<p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>本期不多寒暄，直接进入主题。事情还在发酵中，没办法下太多结论，所以今天我想从几个角度和大家一起梳理一下：从历史、现实角度；从目前“解放日”关税政策主流观点分析角度；以及从这场世界关税大战的各个参战方：美国，中国，欧洲和东南亚的应对。</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>·时间戳·</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:00:23</span></a> <span>2025"黑色星期一"</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:02:51</span></a><span> 虽然惊悚，但这是一场“迟到”的危机</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:10:21</span></a><span> 历史回顾：Smoot-Hawley关税法案</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:17:55</span></a><span> 历史回顾：麦金莱总统时代</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:26:45</span></a><span> “解放日”关税政策的四种流行观点分析：“打碎一切重来论”、“站队论”、“基本盘论”、“瞎搞论”</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:57:16</span></a><span> 各国反应与应对策略：中国、欧盟、东南亚</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>·本期参考信息·</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>1.《</span><span>五仁随笔250407——关税大战意在沛公》</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>2.</span><span>《墙裂坛》：从“石油美元”“美股美元”到“电力人民币”</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>文字版</span><span>（播客平台长度受限），</span><span>请至《墙裂坛》公众号收看！</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>— End —</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>主播｜Johnny 肖小跑</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>编辑｜坛子</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>申请加入坛友群，请添加坛子微信：BKsufe，请注明：坛友</span></p>
April 1, 2025
<p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>你的手机最近被各种低息贷款的短信"轰炸"过吗？年利率仅2.5%、额度高达50万、贷款期限长达七年、还可以只还息不还本……惊不惊喜，有诱不诱人？本期请刘院长独家解读：我们该怎么理解“用贷款促消费”？为什么刺激消费应该用“二阶思维”重新定义？</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>·时间戳·</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>00:03</span></a><span> 你也收到消费贷款短信了吗？</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>09:47</span></a><span> 这次不一样吗？当前消费贷政策与上一次有什么不同？</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>14:07</span></a><span> 银行们怎么看待此次政策？真的会马上行动吗？</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>19:12</span></a><span> 什么才是消费贷的“好”客户？</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>25:21</span></a><span> 为什么拉动消费如此之难？可能是定义的“颗粒度”不够细分</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>29:12</span></a><span> 再想深一层：经济和消费的关系</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>34:02</span></a><span> 范仲淹"荒政三奇策"的启示</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>37:52</span></a><span> 提振消费需要“二阶思维”</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>40:44</span></a><span> 利息高低与经济健康的关系</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>50:15</span></a><span> “经济的晴雨表”——银行净息差与目前真实状况</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>52:01</span></a><span> “融资难”——银行不愿意放贷款？</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><a style="color:#4990E2;text-decoration:none;"><span>57:25</span></a><span> 这次新政会如何发展？</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>文字版</span><span>（播客平台长度受限），</span><span>请至《墙裂坛》公众号收看！</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>— End —</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>主播｜刘晓春 肖小跑</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>编辑｜坛子</span></p><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>申请加入坛友群，请添加坛子微信：BKsufe，请注明：坛友</span></p>
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